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PLEASE NOTE: The schedule posted here is as of 1/25/16, and is subject to change. Please check back for updates.
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Monday, January 25 • 10:40am - 11:20am
KEYNOTE PRESENTATION: State-Space Models As A Unifying Framework For Analyzing Fish and Wildlife Time Series Data

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AUTHORS: Ken B. Newman*, US Fish and Wildlife Service

ABSTRACT: State-space models (SSMs) helped NASA complete a successful trip to the moon....and back in 1969. Ames Research Labs developed a SSM fitting algorithm, the extended Kalman filter, which aided navigation and control of the Apollo space capsule. SSMs are models for two time series occurring in parallel: one consisting of an unknown dynamic process and another consisting of imperfect, partial measurements of the process; for example, a time series of the true position of the capsule and a time series of estimates of the position. Such time series pairs are ubiquitous in fish and wildlife management and science, for example, the abundances of a gray whale stock from 1967 through 1997 and shore-based counts of whales. I present a general framework for SSMs as well as a selection of applications to fish and wildlife populations over the past 30 years. Model fitting methods are briefly discussed along with model formulation and evaluation. Entry-level points for fish and wildlife biologists to some of the SSM literature on methodology and applications and to software for fitting SSMs are given.

Monday January 25, 2016 10:40am - 11:20am EST
Vandenberg B